Brief · Use case · Corporate Development
Asset Progression Outlook.
LiveOutlookProject whether a Phase 2 asset reaches approval, starting from the published base rate for its stage and area, then adjusting for the case.
Asset Progression Outlook is a ready-made use case for Corporate Development. It ships under the Outlook template.
For corporate development leads valuing an asset. You get the projected event and resolution test, the stage and area base rate before the case adjustment, a central path with a range, scenarios and the signposts that would shift the view. Claims are cited or marked as gaps.
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The decision
Will a named Phase 2 asset in a chronic inflammatory disease reach regulatory approval, for a corporate development lead assessing a partnership, and how likely is it?
What the outlook examines
A Phase 2 asset has a long way to approval and most do not complete it. The outlook starts from published success rates, then adjusts for what is known about this asset.
| Part of the outlook | What it asks | Where it looks |
|---|---|---|
| The base rate | Published analyses differ by method and sample. One analysis of industry-sponsored programs from 2000 to 2015 estimated that about 13.8 percent reach approval, and found that trials selecting patients with biomarkers had higher success probabilities. A later report from BIO, Informa and QLS covers 2011 to 2020.1,2 | Wong, Siah and Lo (2019) and the BIO report. |
| Where this asset departs | What the Phase 2 data show, the mechanism, the disease area and any biomarker selection, set against the reference class.1,2 | The asset’s own data and the disease-area rates in the reports, where they exist. |
| The path to a decision | The stages between Phase 2 and an approval decision, with the time and the cost of each, marked as estimates.3 | Stage-gate practice for development portfolios. |
What the outlook does
Success rates have a range. One analysis found about 13.8 percent of industry-sponsored programs reaching approval in 2000 to 2015, higher than earlier estimates, with the lowest rate in oncology. The BIO, Informa and QLS report covers a later period. The outlook shows the range and explains the choice of the reference class.1,2
A corrected table. The Wong paper has a corrigendum for two tables, including the phase 2 to 3 transition. The outlook uses the corrected figures and says so.1
Biomarkers move the odds. The same analysis found that trials using biomarkers to select patients had higher overall success probabilities. The outlook checks whether this asset’s program does, and adjusts only if it does.1
Scenarios. At Comprehensive length the outlook sets out the paths: phase 3 succeeds, phase 3 fails or stalls, or the program is stopped or licensed out before phase 3, each with a likelihood.
Recommended length
Comprehensive
The future could go several ways. Comprehensive adds the table of scenarios with their likelihoods.
You can pick another length on the form. The other two stay available.
Assumptions the outlook checks
The outlook states the assumptions its likelihood rests on and names the weakest one. Examples for this question:
- The reference class matches the asset’s mechanism and disease area.
- The Phase 2 data are representative of what Phase 3 will show.
- The program is funded to completion.
Standards, guidance and sources
Reference classes
Gate discipline
- Stage-gate systems for managing new products (Robert Cooper).3
The decision practice behind the memo itself is on the template page.
What gets flagged
Any rate that is for a different period or disease area than the asset, any adjustment for biomarker selection without evidence, and any likelihood that rests on judgment.
What arrives
- The projection
- Starting point and base rate
- What is already in motion
- The most likely path
- Scenarios
- What would change it
- Signposts
- Confidence, and where it is weakest
What it will not do
It does not predict with certainty or recommend an action. The likelihood carries a range, confidence is stated separately, and a Decision Memo uses the outlook as an input.
It does not value the asset or advise on the terms of a partnership.
It does not predict with certainty. A likelihood is a statement about the evidence, with a range, and the outlook says how sure it is separately.
It does not make a base rate from nothing. Where no reference class exists, the base rate table says so and the likelihood is labeled analyst judgment.
It does not recommend an action. A Decision Memo takes the outlook as an input.
References
- [1] Wong, C. H., Siah, K. W. and Lo, A. W. Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters. Biostatistics, 2019;20(2):273–286. Read on 9 October 2026: data from 1 January 2000 to 31 October 2015; overall about 13.8 percent; corrigendum published 2018.
- [2] BIO, Informa Pharma Intelligence and QLS Advisors. Clinical Development Success Rates and Contributing Factors 2011–2020. 2021. Only the report’s landing page was read; read the report for its figures.
- [3] Cooper, R. G. Stage-gate systems: a new tool for managing new products. Business Horizons, 1990;33(3):44–54. Catalog record; the article was not read.
Links checked 9 October 2026
These are the sources the template drew on. None of their authors or issuers has reviewed it.
About the Brief service
A Brief is a written answer from one specialist, at the depth you asked for. It arrives with its sources, and it closes by saying plainly what would change the conclusion. Nothing is hidden behind a summary, and anything the expert could not source is marked as a gap rather than filled in.
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