Brief · Template
Outlook.
LiveOutlookSay what is likely to happen by when, in words with stated ranges: the projection and its base rate, the most likely path, the scenarios, and the signposts that would tell you early.
Add it to your library to reuse from New → From template. Edit the saved copy in your library on the service form.
When to use it
You need to plan around something that has not happened yet, and you want a likelihood you can hold the specialist to, not a hunch.
Who it is for. Leads who plan around uncertain events: public affairs, regulatory, corporate development, market access, clinical operations and pharmacovigilance leads.
Why forecasts mislead
People attach very different odds to the same word. The study of the phrase “serious possibility” in a 1951 US intelligence estimate found that the people who agreed on the phrase meant odds from about 20 to 80 at the low end to 80 to 20 at the high end. This template uses one fixed scale for likelihood, keeps confidence in the evidence as a separate statement, starts from a base rate, and sets the question so that it can be resolved.2
What you get
The projection, stated so it can be checked. Five labeled lines: what is projected, the horizon, the likelihood, the confidence, and when it will be resolved. A projection with no resolution date cannot be scored.4
Likelihood in words that carry a range. The words come from one scale: almost no chance (1 to 5 percent), very unlikely (5 to 20), unlikely (20 to 45), roughly even chance (45 to 55), likely (55 to 80), very likely (80 to 95) and almost certain (95 to 99). Confidence in the evidence is a separate statement and is never mixed into a likelihood.1
A base rate before the story. A table of the reference class, its size, the historical rate and the source, then how far this case departs from it. A base rate for a past period is a reference class, not a current rate, and the table says so.5
What is already in motion. The dated, cited events that have already happened or are locked in, kept apart from those only announced.
The most likely path, with a range. One paragraph and, when at least three points exist, a table of low, central and high values by period. The range is analyst judgment.3
Scenarios. At Comprehensive length, a table of scenarios with likelihoods that sum to about 100 percent.
What would change it, and the signposts. The ranked drivers, and a table of signposts, each with a threshold, a direction and where to check.1
What is in it, by length
| Section | Brief | Standard | Comprehensive |
|---|---|---|---|
| The projectionWhat is projected, the horizon, the likelihood, the confidence and the resolution | – | ● | ● |
| Starting point and base rateThe reference class, its historical rate, and how this case departs from it | – | ● | ● |
| What is already in motionWhat has happened or is locked in | – | ● | ● |
| The most likely pathThe central path, with a low and high range | – | ● | ● |
| ScenariosThe alternative futures and their likelihoods | – | – | ● |
| What would change itThe ranked drivers | – | ● | ● |
| SignpostsWhat to watch, at what threshold, and where | – | ● | ● |
| Confidence, and where it is weakestLikelihood and confidence stated separately, and the weakest link | – | ● | ● |
A Standard outlook reads in about 1,200 words. A Comprehensive outlook reads in about five. Brief is not offered for an Outlook.
Choosing a length
Choose Standard when one path dominates. Choose Comprehensive when the future could go several ways and you need the scenarios and their likelihoods side by side.
The standards and practice behind it
The structure and the checks come from published practice in intelligence analysis, forecasting and central banking. These are the references we drew on and what we took from each. None of their authors has reviewed the template.
| What we took | From | Where it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Use a fixed set of likelihood terms with stated ranges, and never combine a confidence level with a likelihood in the same sentence | Intelligence Community Directive 203, Analytic Standards (US Office of the Director of National Intelligence)1 | The likelihood line of the projection, and the separate statement of confidence |
| Agree what words of estimative probability mean, because readers read them very differently | Words of Estimative Probability (Sherman Kent, CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence)2 | One scale of words and ranges for the whole outlook |
| Show a central projection with a range of uncertainty, as a distribution and not a single number | The Inflation Report projections: understanding the fan chart (Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 1998)3 | The low, central and high table in the most likely path |
| Ask questions that are specific, time-bound and resolvable, and keep score | Superforecasting (Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner), drawing on the Good Judgment Project4 | The projection states its quantity, horizon and resolution test |
| Start from the base rate for a reference class before adjusting for the case | Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters (Wong, Siah and Lo, 2019), as an example of a reference class in drug development5 | The base rate table, with its sample size, its period and its source |
What it will not do
It does not predict with certainty. A likelihood is a statement about the evidence, with a range, and the outlook says how sure it is separately.
It does not make a base rate from nothing. Where no reference class exists, the base rate table says so and the likelihood is labeled analyst judgment.
It does not recommend an action. A Decision Memo takes the outlook as an input.
References
- [1] Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Intelligence Community Directive 203: Analytic Standards. Signed January 2015; technical amendment of 21 January 2022. The set of likelihood terms and the rule against combining confidence and likelihood were read in the directive’s text on 9 October 2026. The percentage ranges are as confirmed in the template review of 8 October 2026.
- [2] Kent, S. Words of Estimative Probability. CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence. The essay (1964) was read in the template review of 8 October 2026; the ranges cited are from that reading. The landing page shows title and author only.
- [3] Britton, E., Fisher, P. and Whitley, J. The Inflation Report projections: understanding the fan chart. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 1998 Q1. Known from the search listing and the Bank’s later reports. The article describes a probability distribution of the forecast; the claim that the bands widen with the horizon is from later Inflation Reports.
- [4] Tetlock, P. E. and Gardner, D. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown, 2015. Retailer listing; the book was not read.
- [5] Wong, C. H., Siah, K. W. and Lo, A. W. Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters. Biostatistics, 2019;20(2):273–286. Data cover 1 January 2000 to 31 October 2015. A corrigendum corrected two tables.
Links checked 9 October 2026
These are the sources the template drew on. None of their authors or issuers has reviewed it.
About the Brief service
A Brief is a written answer from one specialist, at the depth you asked for. It arrives with its sources, and it closes by saying plainly what would change the conclusion. Nothing is hidden behind a summary, and anything the expert could not source is marked as a gap rather than filled in.
Use cases for the Outlook
8 ready-to-run use cases. Each opens its own page with the question, the specialists, the standards and the references.
To edit a saved template, open New → Brief → From template, or the library rail on the service form.